Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 13.217557 15.418801 17.824667 20.642944 23.847046 27.369543 31.528094
2024-10-27 9.765230 12.753633 16.345262 20.949467 26.661359 33.478476 42.190611
2024-11-03 8.084295 11.616496 16.211761 22.552438 30.986494 41.720792 56.300501
2024-11-10 6.705798 10.486424 15.758089 23.506992 34.438870 49.114785 70.066417
2024-11-17 5.683129 9.588520 15.380067 24.376975 37.728749 56.483613 84.400391
2024-11-24 4.657679 8.452851 14.420131 24.182590 39.364239 61.588887 95.941549
2024-12-01 3.721531 7.255719 13.138200 23.252109 39.692816 64.709865 104.754586
2024-12-08 3.025915 6.317667 12.099826 22.513289 40.147084 67.943801 113.867447
2024-12-15 2.607038 5.791210 11.661183 22.676394 42.009353 73.432887 126.781730
2024-12-22 2.198868 5.199661 11.005184 22.351168 42.974799 77.507346 137.691984
2024-12-29 2.025275 5.047960 11.136271 23.441067 46.458349 85.940452 156.222849
2025-01-05 1.810898 4.764872 10.964695 23.927657 48.884041 92.734252 172.445718
2025-01-12 1.588460 4.429300 10.658050 24.155196 50.931870 99.167022 188.762574
2025-01-19 1.393181 4.117756 10.357074 24.361474 52.971130 105.768104 205.899275
2025-01-26 1.337636 4.142278 10.790607 26.132333 58.200243 118.499337 234.711696
2025-02-02 1.236320 4.025999 10.887923 27.195558 62.116206 129.083897 260.333346
2025-02-09 1.140033 3.901882 10.946521 28.175358 65.941207 139.748504 286.746884
2025-02-16 0.989519 3.587419 10.495663 27.950980 67.236595 145.661995 304.688472
2025-02-23 0.821494 3.175571 9.729912 26.892152 66.639776 147.824127 315.645067
2025-03-02 0.689196 2.837905 9.094668 26.051551 66.414933 150.671320 328.045308
2025-03-09 0.614400 2.670403 8.888976 26.236867 68.485660 158.283615 350.187269
2025-03-16 0.530554 2.446642 8.486020 25.866897 69.243208 163.223804 367.289003
2025-03-23 0.505649 2.433531 8.692018 27.106163 73.860555 176.534593 401.973608